Iranian Oil Exports to China Face Downturn Amid U.N. Sanctions Snap-Back

China’s monthly imports of Iranian crude have dipped in September, according to Kpler and Vortexa analysis. After averaging 1.52 million barrels per day (bpd) over the past three months, the rate fell to 1.40 million bpd. This is the first time in 2025 that volumes have dropped below that recent high. Meanwhile, year-to-date imports from January to August averaged about 1.45 million bpd, making September’s fall significant in trend terms.

Market watchers project that October volumes may decline further. The pressure comes after the UN snap-back sanctions triggered on September 28 expanded the range of enforceable restrictions on Iranian oil and related sectors. Unlike prior unilateral sanctions, these measures carry the backing of U.N. authority, raising the stakes for importers.

Sanctions Tighten, China’s Flexibility Tested

Until now, Iran’s sanctions evasion infrastructure, run in large part by IRGC-linked commercial entities, has thrived under opaque trade networks. But the renewed U.N. measures could strain those systems, making the margin for error narrower. Maritime Executive notes that China historically has observed U.N. sanctions more reliably than unilateral ones, a dynamic that may pull Beijing toward greater compliance this time around.

In support of the crackdown, the U.S. Treasury added a sweeping package of sanctions on October 9, targeting over 100 individuals, entities, and vessels tied to Iran’s crude and LNG exports. Among them: trading firms in Turkey, the UAE, India; port and shipping operators in China, Turkey, UAE; and 10 dark fleet tankers operating under obscure flags such as Panama, Palau, and Cook Islands.

‍