Overcapacity Fears Mount as Container Orderbook Hits 10m TEU

Container shipyards are now handling an orderbook exceeding 10 million TEU, marking a historic milestone for the cellular fleet. Alphaliner data cited by Seatrade Maritime reveals that the pipeline has soared from 7.12 million TEU in 2008 to nearly 10 million today—resulting in an orderbook-to-fleet ratio of 30.4%, the highest in recent history.

Since mid-2024 alone, approximately 600 additional newbuilds have been contracted, leading to a net build-up of 2.8 million TEU when accounting for deliveries and canceled orders. Meanwhile, Lloyd’s List notes the ratio may already top 31.7%, the highest level since 2010.

Analysts Warn: 4.5 Million TEU Must Be Scrapped by 2030

Despite an industry enthusiasm fuelled by cash-rich carriers and decarbonization incentives, a sober counterpoint emerges. An analysis from Linerlytica is warning that at least 4.5 million TEU must be scrapped by 2030 to restore market balance—equivalent to all container tonnage retired over the past 25 years.

Complicating matters further, Braemar’s fleet recycling data shows demolition is virtually frozen in 2025, with only 12 vessels (8,465 TEU) scrapped so far, and an average retirement age now at 28 years—well above the typical 23–24 years.

Market Confidence or Overcapacity Risks?

Still, liner executives remain optimistic. They point to persistent gaps in schedule reliability and the ongoing need for surplus tonnage amid Red Sea disruptions as justification for continued expansion. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen, heightened demand uncertainty and the importance of spare capacity for operational flexibility. The World Bank estimates that 5–6% of the global fleet was tied up in congestion last year—pressures that could help absorb the incoming flood of vessels.

The shipping industry now faces a delicate balancing act: an unprecedented wave of new capacity is meeting a sluggish scrapping market. Commercial and regulatory decisions over the next few years—around EU decarbonization targets, port infrastructure, and yard recycling investment—will determine whether this is a golden expansion or a recipe for overcapacity.

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