Shadow Fleet Growth Accelerates Despite Sanctions

The global shadow tanker fleet continues to expand at pace, now exceeding 1,100 vessels, according to a recent update from BRS. The unofficial fleet, largely composed of aging tonnage carrying sanctioned crude, is growing by roughly one vessel per day — with no sign of slowing despite tightened regulatory pressure.

Around 18% of global tanker tonnage now operates in this gray zone. That includes morethan 300 Suezmaxes and VLCCs, most flagged under jurisdictions with limited enforcement or oversight.

A significant portion of the shadow fleet exports originates from Baltic Sea terminals, notably UST-LUGA and PRIMORSK. Last year alone, 348 shadow fleet vessels departed from Baltic ports, representing about 40% of Russia’s total oil export volume

Flag Shifts and Regulatory Evasion

As Panama cracks down on flagged vessels linked to sanctioned trades, many tankers have shifted to gray- or black-listed registries, such as Gabon — whose overseas registry is now itself under sanction. These changes further complicate vessel tracking and due diligence, especially with many ships operating AIS-dark or engaging in flag-hopping tactics.

For operators, charterers, and compliance teams, this adds friction to already complex trade routes — particularly in high-activity zones like the Singapore Strait and Malaysian EEZ, where STS transfers remain frequent.

STS Transfers Surge Near Singapore

The area just outside Malaysia’s EEZ has once again emerged as a hotspot. Of 239 tankers operating in the zone over the last month, 108 were identified as sanctioned, according to Windward data. These vessels are continuing high-frequency ship-to-ship transfers, often routing Iranian and Russian crude toward Chinese ports via intermediary tankers.

Despite being heavily scrutinized by Western governments, the logistics remain fluid — and effective. AIS-dark legs, name changes, and transshipments remain common, making origin tracking harder without a proper intelligence platform.

Sabotage Disruptions and Russian Response

While regulatory actions have struggled to curtail shadow fleet activity, kinetic disruptions have had measurable impact. Since last winter, seven Russia-linked tankers have suffered unexplained explosions, believed to be caused by limpet mines. Five of those vessels remain inactive or AIS-dark, according to tracking data, with only two (VILAMOURA and SEAJEWEL) returning to visible operations.

In response, Russian authorities have ordered increased underwater inspections and security checks at port entries — a clear sign of concern over vessel vulnerability, especially around Russian Black Sea and Baltic ports.