U.S. Imports Set for Sharp 5.6% Drop in 2025 as Trade Policy Shifts Disrupt Global Shipping

Container shipping professionals face intensified headwinds as mounting tariff pressure under President Trump’s administration is projected to shrink U.S. import cargo by approximately 5.6% in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the latest Global Port Tracker figures released by NRF and Hackett Associates‍.

Despite a 3.6% year-on-year volume increase in the first half—driven by front-loaded shipments in anticipation of tariff hikes—imports are expected to plunge sharply in the second half of the year. Forecasts predict month-over-month declines of around 20% from September through December, with November potentially hitting just 1.71 million TEUs, the lowest total since April 2023.

This downturn is already playing out at U.S. ports. June saw 1.96 million TEUs, down 8.4% year-on-year, while July briefly surged to 2.3 million TEUs as shippers rushed outbound cargo ahead of new tariffs. Still, the momentum looks unsustainable‍.

The snapshot is further backed by maritime consultancy Drewry, which forecasts a 1% contraction in global container shipping volumes, marking only the third annual drop since 1979. U.S. imports from China may drop by as much as 40%, while key carriers like Hapag-Lloyd have already reported a 30% cancellation in bookings bound for the U.S.

Moodong’s outlook for U.S. ports remains grim: Moody’s recently downgraded the industry’s forecast from stable to negative, anticipating annual port trade volume reductions of 7–12%, spurred by higher costs, uncertain demand, and recession risks.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Center for Geopolitics claims the high tariff regime—which includes blanket duties up to 50% across numerous sectors—may become a fixture beyond Trump’s term. Their analysis suggests U.S. businesses could face an additional USD 187 billion in import costs, further stretching fragile supply chains.

Analysts warn the erratic tariffs—described as “hither-and-thither”—have disrupted trade flow predictability, prompting companies to pull in shipments prematurely or delay procurement entirely. That volatility has already triggered ripples through freight markets, procurement cycles, and broader economic sentiment‍.

Ports such as LOS ANGELES and NEW YORK, once seeing record volumes in Q2, may now shift to smaller vessels and reduced services—signaling tough months ahead for logistics stakeholders and supply chain partners.

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